Bear Warning

Discussion on Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium, Lanthanides, Cobalt miners and physical metals investing. Energy miners are uranium & oil sands.

Any market discussion, recommendations, news related to contra investments, conspiracies to defraud general stock market participants especially PM investors are welcome as well.

Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 22 Sep 2008, 14:54

jchapin posted this on another board. Had to post it here

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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 31 Oct 2008, 21:41

Top Theorists Examine Rippling Economic Turbulence

As the financial sector shifts, so does the reach of the jolt to economic structures around the world. Economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb and his mentor, mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot, speak with Paul Solman about chain reactions and predicting the financial crisis.


On Black Swan events and Chaos Theory



PBS Transcript of Interview with Taleb & Mandelbrot
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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 02 Nov 2008, 10:01

Don Coxe is now calling for Bank Stocks and Commodities to lead a pullback from the brink

On October 31, 2008, the financial stocks, infrastructure, agribusiness led the markets higher. The Cash Rich miner "Buys of the Century" were down after gold got smashed once again.

Financial Stocks on 10/31/2008

Agribusiness (material handling & food) on 10/31/2008

Infrastructure: Roads, Bridges, Power Plants, Refineries on 10/31/2008

What a difference a couple of days make to the precious metals miner stocks.

Cash rich mining companies 10/31/2008

Cash rich mining companies 10/29/2008

Broadcast and Transcript: "When The Market Took Fright, the Fed Took Flight"

Don Coxe Broadcast 10/31/2008

Transcript_Coxe_CC_Oct31_08.pdf
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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 11 Nov 2008, 23:04

The Argentina Currency Crisis, 2001 - 2002, a Case Study in Collapse


“Within two months the government's debt restructuring would turn into outright cessation of payments to private creditors, and would come amid mob rule, with banks closed and individuals and businesses unable to obtain access to their money... with the peso dropping precipitously, to less than one third of its 1$ parity. These factors would cause the country to fall into paralysis and depression in 2002.” “The government seized billions of dollars in pension-fund assets and converted them into treasury bonds.” “...declaring martial law only evoked more antigovernment fervor among the middle-class...” “their faces etched in loss and embitterment.”

... the Argentine currency collapsed 50% in the first week of January 2002 and 74% in the first 7 seven months. Furthermore, during this period of time about 30 percent of the population was pushed below the poverty line.

Monty posts this piece on What a Real Financial Currency Crisis Looks Like: Argentina 2001-2002, A Case Study
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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 17 Nov 2008, 04:03

Marc Faber weighs in:


Example: We may get an oversold rally, but he is long-term bearish. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is down 90% off recent highs. China announced a $586 billion stimulus plan Nov 10. The BDI tanks further along with the global economy, especially commodities related to oil and base metals. $30 trillion market losses (deflation) already in the world economies make ALL government bailouts a moot point.




Part2

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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 22 Nov 2008, 19:07

Peter Schiff vs. the Talking Heads


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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 03 Dec 2008, 06:45

December 1, 2008: Worst single day drop since 1987 in Canada

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/wo ... story.html

Two weeks before, the Toronto Stock Exchange had the biggest percentage decline since 1987 on November 21, 2008

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news ... 0b9566bbbc

Some charts to ponder


http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/cand ... OIH,$CRB|B


Canada's Prime Minister Stephen Harper faces a NO CONFIDENCE VOTE


Harper conservatives shut down Canadian Parliament
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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 11 Dec 2008, 20:12

Anton Fekete on No Fever Like Gold Fever

..the Brave New World of irredeemable currency sans the paper gold factory at Comex will be an entirely different world from what we have been used to for the past thirty-six years. I highlight the differences as I see them. This should be helpful in the long run, even if this backwardation is temporary and gold futures trading will return to normal, since permanent backwardation is ultimately unavoidable.



Item 1: Barrick and other gold producers that still have an open hedge book will go bankrupt.

Item 2: Other gold miners will, one after another, stop selling gold altogether, and go into hibernation.

Item 3: Junior gold mines will put off starting production indefinitely. They will consider their gold ore reserves in the ground a safer store of value than paper money in an insolvent bank.

Item 4: The closing of the gold window at the Comex will furnish an excuse for other issuers of paper gold including the bullion banks to declare bankruptcy fraudulently.

Item 5: GLD and other joint depositories of gold will be under enormous pressure to default and let the owners of the ETF shares hold the bag. Let them sue for the gold. They won’t get it: their contracts give them no right to physical gold. They will get small change, in paper. The principals will cut up the gold pie among themselves. No crumbs will trickle down to shareholders.

Item 6: Even allocated and segregated metal account gold is not safe. The temptation on the account providers to default will be irresistible. They are not going to release the gold until expressly ordered by the courts, and will make sure that no gold will be left by then.

Item 7: Central banks forfeit their gold under leases due to backwardation, causing an uproar of citizens whose patrimony was sequestered and dissipated in such an ignominious manner.

Item 8: The only market for gold will be the fragmented black markets in various countries each charging a price whatever the traffic can bear. All legal protection of the ownership of and trade in gold will be suspended. The Dark Age will descend on the trading world, just as it did when the Roman Empire collapsed.



Our present experiment with irredeemable currency can last only as long as it is able to support futures markets in gold. The declining gold basis is the hour glass: when it runs out and the last grain of sand drops, gold fever will bleed the futures markets of cash gold, and the days of the regime of irredeemable currency are numbered.



Previous episodes of experimentation lasted no more than 18 years, or half as long as the present one which has taken 36 years so far, a world record. Of course, none of the earlier episodes were supported by futures markets. Forewarned, forearmed. Get ready and move closer to the doors. When the curtain falls on the last contango in Washington, there will be panic and some people may get trampled to death at the exit.


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1228935840.php
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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 23 Dec 2008, 03:22

Marc Faber on Bloomberg TV

"2009 to be a Catastrophe"

Recommends gold, junior gold miners, oil


http://tinyurl.com/8f6y8q
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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 13 Jan 2009, 05:20

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard warns investors in the London based Telegraph

The bond bubble is an accident waiting to happen

The bond vigilantes slumber. As the greatest sovereign bond bubble of all time rolls into 2009, investors are clinging to an implausible assumption that China and Japan will provide enough capital to keep the happy game going for ever.

They are betting too that debt deflation will overwhelm the effects of near-zero interest rates across the G10 and nullify a £2,000bn fiscal blast in the US, China, Japan, Britain, and Europe.

Above all, they are betting that the Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke will fail to print enough banknotes to inflate the US money supply, despite his avowed intent to do so.

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries have fallen to 2.4pc – a level that was unseen even in the Great Depression. This is "return-free risk", said bond guru Jim Grant.



The Bond Bubble Has Long Since Burst

Link to Jesse's Crossroads Cafe and Jim Grant commentary

A Chart of TBT, Ultra Short 20-30 Year Treasuries
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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 25 Jan 2009, 16:42

TARP Redux, Aggregator Banks

Owners of capital will stimulate the working class to buy more and more expensive goods, houses and technology, pushing them to take more and more expensive credits, until their debt becomes unbearable. The unpaid debt will lead to bankruptcy of banks, which will have to be nationalized, and the State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to communism. Karl Marx, 1867


Karl Marx Quote Debunked


A billion dollars in 100 dollar bills


Image


Another sheriff in town, Sheila Bair of the FDIC
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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 15 Feb 2009, 15:14

Glenn Beck is not my favorite guy but the message is compelling.

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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 04 Mar 2009, 21:53

25 People to Blame for the Financial Crisis

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01. Phil Gramm – Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee (1995 - 2000)
http://www.ickypeople.com/2008/04/bill- ... prime.html
02. Chris Cox – Former chairman, Securities and Exchange Commission
03. Angelo Mozilo – Co-founder and former head of Countrywide
04. Joe Cassano – Founding member, AIG’s financial-products unit
05. Frank Raines - Former chairman and CEO, Fannie Mae
06. Kathleen Corbet – Former CEO, Standard & Poor’s
07. Ian McCarthy – CEO, Beazer Homes
08. Bernie Madoff – Ponzi scheme orchestrator
09. Dick Fuld – Former CEO, Lehman Brothers
10. Marion and Herb Sandler – Former heads, World Savings Bank
11. Stan O’Neal – Former CEO, Merrill Lynch
12. John Devaney – Hedge fund manager
13. Sandy Weill – Former chairman and CEO, Citigroup

"The audacity of that prick (Tim Geithner) in front of the American people announcing he was deciding whether or not a firm of this stature and this whatever was good enough to get a loan Like he was the determining factor, and it’s like a flea on his back, floating down underneath the Golden Gate Bridge, getting a handjob, saying, ‘Raise the bridge.’ This guy thinks he's got a big dick He’s got nothing, except maybe a boyfriend. I’m not a good enemy. I’m a very bad enemy. But certain things really—that bothered me plenty. It’s just that for some clerk to make a decision based on what, your own personal feeling about whether or not they’re a good credit? Who the fuck asked you? You’re not an elected officer. You’re a clerk. Believe me, you’re a clerk. I want to open up on this fucker, that’s all I can tell you." Jimmy Cayne

14. Jimmy Cayne – Former chairman and CEO, Bear Stearns
15. George W. Bush – Former U.S. President
16. American Consumers
17. Alan Greenspan – Former chairman, Federal Reserve
18. Hank Paulson – Former Secretary of the Treasury
19. David Lereah – Former chief economist, National Association of Realtors
20. Lew Ranieri – Father of mortgage-backed securities
21. David Oddsson – Former Prime Minister, Iceland
22. Fred Goodwin – Former chairman and CEO, Royal Bank of Scotland
23. Bill Clinton – Former U.S. President
24. Wen Jiabao – Premier, China
25. Burton Jablin – Programmer at Scripps Networks, which owns HGTV



Time Magazine Reader Poll

Another Financial Hall of Shame
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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 08 Mar 2009, 11:30

Karl Denninger: To Obama: Stop "The Bezzle": UPDATED

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Obama wants to "get all the pillars in place for recovery this year” and wants Americans not to “stuff money in their mattresses.”

“I don’t think that people should be fearful about our future, I don’t think that people should suddenly mistrust all of our financial institutions.”



You want Americans not to "stuff money in mattresses" and "not suddenly mistrust all of our financial institutions"?

Fine.


START LOCKING UP THE EMBEZZLERS AND THIEVES, MANY OF WHOM ARE YOUR CRONIES AND DONORS TO BOTH POLITICAL PARTIES.

Until you do that, anyone with half a brain in their head will head to The Mattress, because it is the only place where one can be certain their money is safe.

That's right. The FDIC isn't safe - Sheila Bair said so, and she is taxing the innocent (potentially to the point of ruin!) to fund the guilty. Specifically, she's increasing assessments on banks that did nothing wrong - including a special assessment high enough to severely damage or even wipe out their earnings. These are the local community banks that didn't make bad mortgages and liar loans, didn't write commercial mortgages on strip malls with unrealistic assumptions and didn't participate in the fraud of the last 20 years, but they are being intentionally damaged to bail out the guilty!

The Stock Market isn't safe, because not one of the public firms on the exchange has a balance sheet that can be trusted. Without a balance sheet that I can trust I have no way to know what a reasonable valuation might be. Ergo, I cannot figure out whether stocks are a buy, sell, or short. Never mind Stanford Financial, Madoff and the whole host of others who have been caught doing the same thing.

The Bond Market isn't safe, because the CDS market can be manipulated and thus there are now people who buy bonds intended to force the firms into default, rather than wanting to see them succeed. Therefore, I cannot buy bonds.

If you think that the market is collapsing because people are worried about "socialism", you're wrong. Yes, that's a concern, and yes, people are worried that you're going "hard left" - but there are winners in such a marketplace.


No, the market is being beaten to a pulp because you have inherited a financial system that has for the last twenty years, under both Democrats and Republicans, been comprised of one fraud after another, starting with "the Internet is growing 50% a quarter" and now winding up with "home prices never go down."

You have inherited this President Obama, but you have also refused to change it. Let's tick it off, shall we?

  • You have refused to step on the neck of the CDS monster by declaring the uncovered writing of these swaps contrary to public policy and thus void, suspending all ability to collect until they are on a public exchange with nightly margin supervision.

  • You have refused to claw back the nearly $50 billion that our government paid to the bankers who caused the mess via bailing out AIG, and attempted to conceal same.

  • You have refused to compel The Federal Reserve to disclose the full details of who it is lending to and on what collateral.

  • You have refused to demand that the banks (and all other firms) produce accurate balance sheets showing the impairment on their so-called "assets".

  • You have refused to direct the FBI to indict the CEOs who came on national television hours or days before their firms collapsed, proclaiming that "everything is fine."

  • You have not only refused to demand prosecution of the homeowners, mortgage brokers, lenders and others who lied about the quality of the loans made, you have explicitly excused that behavior in crafting "help" for homeowners, ratifying out-and-out fraud!

  • And finally, you have stuck a second $700 billion placeholder in your budget for yet more bailout money to be paid to the very people who caused this collapse in the first place.


And much more.

We need a banking system Mr. President. We do not need these banks who gamed the rules, demanded unlimited leverage, colluded with one another to create unreasonable and systemic risk and fomented the great economic and financial collapse since the 1930s.

You've done nothing to solve this problem Mr. President, instead choosing to continue trying to paper over it, as President Bush and Henry Paulson did.

What do we have left President Obama if not "The Mattress"?

You own this problem now.

It is your responsibility.

Either act - it is within your power to do it today - or watch our economy and markets implode.

Pleading will not get it done; all that does is confirm that you either lack the balls to do the right thing or are personally complicit in the corruption and embezzlement.


To Obama: Stop the Bezzle

The Challenge Before America (Stop the Bezzle Part 1

Karl Denninger video posted on March 5, 2009

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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 25 Mar 2009, 20:38

The Fed's $1.2 Trillion Gamble, CNBC Interview with Peter Schiff

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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 29 Mar 2009, 12:32

The Anti Jewish Rhetoric Heats Up

Time magazine's list this month of the "25 People to Blame for the Financial Crisis" includes, by my count, six Jews – which means that more than 75 percent of the culpable were not Jewish. Among the blameworthy were former President Bush, disgraced subprime lender Angelo Mozilo and, ahem, the american consumer. There is little Jews can do to kill this old canard. But they can learn from the mistakes that enabled one of their own to use the communal bonds in American Jewry to orchestrate the biggest con in US history.

Though some Jewish money managers have proved to be scoundrels at best, like Shylock, it is not because they are Jewish – just as Christianity did not inspire Ken Lay to cheat Enron's shareholders. Indeed, Jews may be the easy historical target, but scapegoating misses the moral of our own failures.


http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0227/p09s01-coop.html
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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 18 Apr 2009, 12:24

Karl Denninger on the April 15, 2009 "Tea Party"

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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 15 May 2009, 00:21

From dshort.com, 4 Bears

Image
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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 07 Jun 2009, 02:27

Ignore the Scaremongers - Watch out for the Truly Scary

This is what I find scary. First: 23.6 million Americans out of work, or forced into part-time work. That is truly scary. 23.6 million Americans short of cash, unable to pay off debts; and unable to finance mortgages. 23.6 million Americans citizens that do not participate in the nation's economic life, and are disillusioned and angry. Many will be devastated, prepared to self-medicate with alcohol or drugs, and many thousands will act out their rage and humiliation. These citizens do not pose a threat just to themselves, to their families and to society. They also pose a threat to the finance sector -- because they will default on debts. The Mortgage Bankers Association's report of record increases in delinquencies and foreclosures by those with prime mortgages is but one example of the impact of unemployment on the banks. To all those bankers celebrating their taxpayer-funded profits that must be truly scary.

Second: a 40% rise in business bankruptcy filings in May. Small, medium and large businesses destroyed, economic capacity wasted, hopes destroyed, jobs lost. That's scary.

Third: a collapse in investment in the first quarter of 2009. According to Global Insight "real spending on equipment and software plummeted 33.8%, the largest percentage drop since the first quarter of 1958." Green shoots when investment plummets furthest in 50 years? Without investment, there is no future for new economic activity, for green technology, for an end to job losses -- for economic hope.

There's plenty more I find scary, but these three are top of my list.


Ann Pettifor

New Economist, Author, Debtonation - The Coming First World Debt Crisis
Posted: June 5, 2009 12:12 PM
Huffington Post


http://tinyurl.com/r5g3ho
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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 04 Jul 2009, 07:39

The U.S. has lost the equivalent of all jobs created in the last 9 years.

http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=1752178

Joblessness with or without economic recovery is a failure of the Federal Reserve to fulfill the Congressional mandate of Humphrey-Hawkins: "Full Employment and Balanced Growth". Acceptable unemployment rate is 3%.

If the Fed is incapable of doing its job, what purpose does it serve?


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humphrey-H ... oyment_Act
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Re: Bear Warning

Postby mxsquid » 22 Jul 2009, 00:13

Boom, Bust & Blame

The Inside Story of America's Economic Crisis


http://www.cnbc.com/id/31187744
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