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Model Portfolio Started 8/22/2008

PostPosted: 27 Aug 2008, 04:01
by mxsquid
Mostly Canadian Miners

Code: Select all
8/26/2008         1 Day        >8/22/08
            
TUE.V      0.36   0.02   5.88%   16.13%
GIX.V      1.47  -0.12  -7.55%    4.26%
CHK       49.45   1.45   3.02%    3.78%
KCL.TO     2.74  -0.08  -2.84%    3.40%
SBB.V      0.94   0.02   2.17%    3.30%
AQI.TO     5.40  -0.10  -1.82%    3.05%
FNV.TO    20.93   0.72   3.56%    2.95%
DVN      105.25   3.44   3.38%    2.90%
FRO       56.60  -0.17  -0.30%    2.82%
ALU        6.01   0.29   5.07%    2.74%
ACH       22.26   0.56   2.58%    2.44%
HAT.V      3.58   0.23   6.87%    2.29%
PTM.TO     2.41   0.00   0.00%    2.12%
BTE       29.26   0.85   2.99%    2.02%
MAI.TO     1.16  -0.05  -4.13%    1.75%
WJX-UN.TO 34.84   0.15   0.43%    1.72%
EGO        7.92   0.09   1.15%    1.54%
UTS.TO     4.04   0.06   1.51%    1.51%
DO       111.20   2.78   2.56%    1.19%
AEM       56.57  -0.31  -0.55%    1.02%
OSK.TO     3.18   0.10   3.25%    0.95%
JAG.TO     7.08   0.31   4.58%    0.85%
SQM       38.29   0.07   0.18%    0.79%
ESV       69.02  -0.18  -0.26%    0.63%
OPC.TO    17.89   0.32   1.82%    0.62%
NXY       31.69   0.61   1.96%    0.54%
PCU       25.50   0.52   2.08%    0.51%
BQI        4.29   0.22   5.41%    0.47%
RGLD      34.44   0.71   2.10%    0.44%
SLW       11.52   0.15   1.32%    0.44%
UEX.TO     2.98   0.03   1.02%    0.34%
BHP       69.69   1.32   1.93%    0.22%
AUN.V      0.36   0.00   0.00%    0.00%
DM .O      1.59  -0.01  -0.62%    0.00%
GROW      14.07   0.51   3.76%   -0.07%
ARMH       6.14   0.11   1.82%   -0.16%
GG        33.52   0.02   0.06%   -0.21%
CLHB      79.06   0.96   1.23%   -0.59%
GOLD      43.17  -0.18  -0.42%   -0.67%
HL         7.09   0.09   1.29%   -0.70%
CS.TO      3.14   0.05   1.62%   -0.95%
COP       82.38   0.56   0.68%   -0.96%
ECU.TO     1.74  -0.01  -0.57%   -1.14%
QUA.TO    15.94  -0.30  -1.85%   -1.18%
FWLT      49.00   1.23   2.57%   -1.21%
BG        90.21   0.88   0.99%   -1.33%
TCM.TO    16.07   0.57   3.68%   -1.35%
BUCY      66.83  -0.67  -0.99%   -1.69%
EXK        2.31  -0.04  -1.70%   -1.70%
BVN       22.00  -0.16  -0.72%   -1.83%
ATI       47.76   1.12   2.40%   -1.85%
CPQ.V      2.83  -0.05  -1.74%   -2.08%
FCS       13.07  -0.06  -0.46%   -2.17%
FCX       88.53   0.72   0.82%   -2.28%
WFC       28.69   0.02   0.07%   -2.28%
AUY       10.66  -0.26  -2.38%   -2.38%
CNX       67.59   0.22   0.33%   -2.73%
BTU       62.74   1.00   1.62%   -2.74%
IIIN      16.35  -0.14  -0.85%   -2.74%
KMT       34.07  -0.01  -0.03%   -2.80%
XRA        2.90   0.04   1.40%   -3.01%
ING       30.29  -0.29  -0.95%   -3.35%
GBN        2.53   0.01   0.40%   -3.44%
TRE        4.15  -0.03  -0.72%   -3.49%
GCE.TO     5.69  -0.06  -1.04%   -3.56%
NOT.V      2.68  -0.07  -2.55%   -3.60%
ROK.V      1.87  -0.03  -1.58%   -3.61%
ALS.TO     6.56  -0.16  -2.38%   -3.81%
ICE       84.74  -0.21  -0.25%   -3.81%
MFN        7.65  -0.19  -2.42%   -4.26%
MOT        9.56   0.00   0.00%   -4.30%
ASTE      33.10   0.22   0.67%   -4.53%
JAVA       9.54  -0.11  -1.14%   -4.60%
GT        19.42  -0.25  -1.27%   -4.62%
AUA.TO     0.41  -0.01  -2.38%   -4.65%
NRN.V      0.61   0.00   0.00%   -4.69%
NILSY.PK  20.00   0.00   0.00%   -4.76%
BOOM      29.73  -0.03  -0.10%   -4.77%
CRESY     10.60  -0.20  -1.85%   -4.93%
USU        5.50  -0.14  -2.48%   -5.34%
SWC        7.00   0.09   1.30%   -6.04%
IMN.TO    60.51  -1.24  -2.01%   -6.17%
PAL        3.87  -0.08  -2.03%   -6.75%
LMC        4.69  -0.15  -3.10%   -7.50%
CALM      39.24  -3.76  -8.74%   -8.60%
NWI.TO     0.23  -0.01  -4.26%  -10.00%
SST.V      1.44   0.03   2.13%  -11.11%
OK.V       1.06  -0.09  -7.83%  -11.67%
WRN.TO     1.04  -0.07  -6.31%  -13.33%

Re: Model Portfolio Started 8/22/2008

PostPosted: 27 Aug 2008, 11:42
by watson2x
Hello I'm new to this forum.
Interesting model portofolio
What parameters did you use to compile the list.
Aren't you afraid of a secundary killing of the juniors? During the last run up of the PM's they underperformed.
Followed your work since years. Keep up the good work.
watson2x

Re: Model Portfolio Started 8/22/2008

PostPosted: 30 Aug 2008, 16:12
by mxsquid
Hi watson2x, glad to see you here!

The model portfolio consists of stocks I've been following for 3, 4 years and longer. Most of these have had great runs in the past and are down 25% - 70% yet their fundamentals remain compelling (in my view).

I've listed mostly miners but also show some banks and tech stocks. I really need to add some pharma picks as well.

I'll be happy to explain any particular stock on my list. For example Silverstone Resources is on the list (SST.V) because

1. It is a silver royalty stock (like SLW) trading under $2 at less than 10 x earnings.
2. It has a fixed cost of silver @ $3.90/oz.
3. It has no debt, buying back shares and upping guidance to $.04 - $.05/share for the next quarter at $13 silver.
4. The company buyback was recently announced wherein 10% of the public float or 9,865,333 shares of 98,653,328 are to be retired. In total there are 122,402,010 common shares issued and outstanding.

Miniscule float, earnngs growth, cash in the bank, trading at 10 x earnings, however a very volatile stock.

Re: Model Portfolio Started 8/22/2008

PostPosted: 30 Aug 2008, 16:31
by mxsquid
1 Week performance of the 8/22/2008 model portfolio here:

Note the outperformances by Aquiline (silver), Canplats (palladium, platinum), ECU Silver, Potash One (KCL.TO)

1 Week Performance of the Model Portfolio

Re: Model Portfolio Started 8/22/2008

PostPosted: 12 Sep 2008, 19:01
by mxsquid
Interesting that Wells Fargo Bank is one of the few green here. Overall 1 day performance on 9/12/08 up 5.6%. Outstanding 1 day results by AEM, FWLT, TRE, BQI. The overweight commodities portfolio is down 14.7% for 3 weeks.

3 Week performance of the Model Portfolio

Re: Model Portfolio Started 8/22/2008

PostPosted: 20 Sep 2008, 22:18
by mxsquid
Up 7% on Giddy Friday when Free Markets became abolished. Still down 11%.

Check out UEX.TO (hot uranium play)

1 Month Picks Performance

Re: Model Portfolio Started 8/22/2008

PostPosted: 10 Apr 2010, 16:03
by mxsquid
Still down 4.8% in this mostly commodities buy & hold portfolio

March 10, 2008, Bear Stearns collapses.

DJIA 3 days surrounding Bear Stearns

11-Mar-08 11,741.33 12,205.98 11,741.33 12,156.81 5,109,080,000 12,156.81
10-Mar-08 11,893.04 11,993.75 11,691.47 11,740.15 4,261,240,000 11,740.15
7-Mar-08 12,039.09 12,131.33 11,778.66 11,893.69 4,565,410,000 11,893.69

On August 22, 2008, shares in Lehman closed up 5% (16% for the week) on reports that the state-controlled Korea Development Bank was considering buying Lehman.

Days surrounding the Lehman collapse.

DJIA

25-Aug-08 11,626.19 11,626.19 11,336.82 11,386.25 3,420,600,000 11,386.25
22-Aug-08 11,426.79 11,684.00 11,426.79 11,628.06 3,741,070,000 11,628.06
21-Aug-08 11,415.23 11,501.29 11,263.63 11,430.21 4,032,590,000 11,430.21

The model portfolio was constructed based on the 1 day wonder rally in the Dow on August 22, 2008.

Code: Select all
4/9/2010...........1 Day.........>8/22/08

OSK.TO.......9.36...0.20...2.18%..197.14%
XRA..........8.16...0.10...1.24%..172.91%
SWC.........15.69...0.71...4.74%..110.60%
GOLD........83.47...1.44...1.76%...92.06%
ARMH........11.27...0.16...1.44%...83.25%
EGO.........14.15...0.38...2.76%...81.41%
WRN.TO.......1.97...0.13...7.07%...64.17%
JAG.TO......11.31...0.60...5.60%...61.11%
ALS.TO......10.64...0.04...0.38%...56.01%
BVN.........34.43..-0.01..-0.03%...53.64%
EXK..........3.60...0.14...4.05%...53.19%
SLW.........17.49...0.22...1.27%...52.48%
RGLD........51.50...0.53...1.04%...50.19%
GCE.TO.......8.31...0.09...1.09%...40.85%
FNV.TO......28.42..-0.11..-0.39%...39.79%
SCCO........34.89...0.40...1.16%...37.52%
OK.V.........1.63..-0.01..-0.61%...35.83%
ACH.........28.64...1.00...3.62%...31.80%
CRESY.......13.94..-0.02..-0.14%...25.02%
DM.TO........1.97...0.04...2.07%...23.90%
SST.V........1.98...0.00...0.00%...22.22%
ICE........107.04...0.01...0.01%...21.50%
BTE.........34.55..-0.48..-1.37%...20.47%
MFN..........9.62...0.07...0.73%...20.40%
GG..........40.19..-0.01..-0.02%...19.65%
BHP.........82.30...0.94...1.16%...18.35%
PAL..........4.78...0.11...2.36%...15.18%
ATI.........55.69...0.34...0.61%...14.45%
KCL.TO.......3.00...0.17...6.01%...13.21%
USU..........6.42...0.11...1.74%...10.50%
WFC.........32.30...0.07...0.22%...10.01%
TRE..........4.70...0.14...3.07%....9.30%
AEM.........61.12...1.06...1.76%....9.14%
LUN.TO.......5.64...0.11...1.99%....7.84%
SBB.V........0.98...0.00...0.00%....7.69%
BUCY........71.22...2.52...3.67%....4.77%
QUA.TO......16.59...0.27...1.65%....2.85%
SQM.........38.11...0.08...0.21%....0.32%
CS.TO........3.12...0.05...1.63%...-1.58%
AUY.........10.57...0.05...0.48%...-3.21%
ZZZZZZ.....366996...4697...1.30%...-4.82%
FCX.........85.67..-0.38..-0.44%...-5.44%
IMN.TO......60.09...0.49...0.82%...-6.82%
PTM.TO.......2.19..-0.06..-2.67%...-7.20%
NILSY.PK....19.01...0.56...3.04%...-9.48%
MAI.TO.......1.02...0.05...5.15%..-10.53%
KMT.........30.72...0.40...1.32%..-12.35%
ASTE........30.35...0.27...0.90%..-12.46%
AUN.V........0.31...0.00...0.00%..-13.89%
TCM.TO......14.02..-0.10..-0.71%..-13.93%
HL...........6.12...0.10...1.66%..-14.29%
CALM........35.73...0.14...0.39%..-16.77%
DO..........90.72...0.34...0.38%..-17.44%
WJX-UN.TO...28.26...0.01...0.04%..-17.49%
NXY.........25.80..-0.05..-0.19%..-18.15%
FCS.........10.88...0.34...3.23%..-18.56%
MOT..........7.39..-0.04..-0.54%..-26.03%
BTU.........46.35...0.23...0.50%..-28.15%
GROW........10.11...0.03...0.30%..-28.20%
CLH.........56.13...0.36...0.65%..-29.42%
ESV.........46.98..-0.08..-0.17%..-31.51%
GBG..........1.75...0.00...0.00%..-33.21%
COP.........55.32...1.38...2.56%..-33.49%
CNX.........45.91...0.94...2.09%..-33.93%
BG..........60.35...1.13...1.91%..-33.99%
FRO.........36.31...3.22...9.73%..-34.04%
DVN.........67.26...1.34...2.03%..-34.24%
NOT.V........1.82...0.04...2.25%..-34.53%
UTS.TO.......2.56..-0.03..-1.16%..-35.68%
IIIN........10.77..-0.02..-0.19%..-35.93%
GT..........12.87..-0.10..-0.77%..-36.79%
FWLT........30.40...0.74...2.49%..-38.71%
TUE.V........0.17...0.00...3.03%..-45.16%
HAT.V........1.88...0.00...0.00%..-46.29%
ALU..........3.10...0.00...0.00%..-47.01%
CHK.........24.56...0.45...1.87%..-48.46%
BOOM........16.06..-0.08..-0.50%..-48.56%
ECU.TO.......0.65...0.01...1.56%..-63.07%
NWI.TO.......0.09..-0.01..-5.56%..-66.00%
ROK.V........0.64...0.04...6.67%..-67.01%
ING.........10.25...0.15...1.49%..-67.29%
NRN.V........0.19...0.00..-2.56%..-70.31%
UEX.TO.......0.87...0.03...3.57%..-70.71%
BQI..........0.90..-0.03..-2.91%..-78.90%
AUA.TO.......0.09...0.00...0.00%..-79.07%
GIX.TO.......0.20...0.01...2.50%..-85.46%
OPC.TO.......2.22..-0.02..-0.89%..-87.51%